România. It was only after later that the formula was applied to investing. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Bailey to score with Gwen in Thursday 14/1 double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: Hughes can get the best out of. Cricket. Tony Calvin has been in the racing and tipping business for over 25 years, encompassing a 12-year stint at the Racing Post and an 11-year spell as Head Of Media at Betfair. The multiplier is normally set to 50%, for an aggressive betting strategy set it to 100%. Systems like Martingale and Row of numbers use high level of progresion to make up for the punters. , discovered the Kelly criterion in 1956 in New Jersey. Kelly betting can be applied to Blackjack with a high degree of certainty in the calculated probabilities. 5/2. The Kelly Criterion implies you should bet 22. 00. It can therefore be applied equally well in American football, soccer and horse racing markets, to name just three. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Featured Rugby. Get the best bets for this Saturday's horse racing at Ascot and beyond from tipsters Kevin Blake, Tony Calvin, Kate Tracey and Timeform. Introduction. One was the 'square root' plan whereby a base bet is established, say $20, and each bet you place is $20 plus the square root of any. 0 (100%), but if you do not want to wager the full. The Kelly Criterion is well-known among gamblers as a way to decide how much to bet when the odds are in your favor. Tennis Tips. Use this if you have a crystal ball that tells you the true probabilities. 60) / 2 = 0. The formula was derived by J. 50 (or 5/2 with an implied probability of 28. Cricket. B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure (i. @tony_calvin will be live on our Twitter spaces this and every Saturday from 8am for a 30 min update show with @mccueryan12 chatting Going Updates Market Movers ITV Races and. Golf. 71% of your capital, or $57. These two factors are then input into the Kelly Criterion equation. The formula compares that probability with the odds available, and adjusts the stake accordingly for maximum profitability. Recording and reviewing . Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday. 2022 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to. 55)-0. 33). Home; Sectional Times; Hugh Taylor v The Actuary; Subscription Options; Feedback; Using The Actuary Speed Handicap Ratings;. Applying the Kelly criterion without. Determine whether. The true probability may lie between 40% and 60%, or even 20% and 80%. The formula is therefore suggesting that 20% of the portfolio be stake 20% of your bankroll. Thorp. 00 – 1) f* =0. Kelly Criterion Horse Racing example. What is the Kelly Criterion formula? The basic Kelly Criterion formula is: (bp-q)/b. It’s free and easy to use. To see the Kelly formula in action, let’s take an example of a football match where the odds available on the draw are 3. xh is the amount we will wager on horse h, Oh is the decimal payout odds for horse h, which we assume are fixed, and w is our current wealth. The simplified Kelly Criterion has some potential flaws and can give some head-scratching results which are explained in the article above. For any queries relating to Betting. Jun 16, 2023 By Rebecca Martin Multiple strategies in the sports betting world claim to help bettors maximize their profits and manage their banks effectively. The Kelly Criterion – also known as the Kelly Strategy or Kelly Staking Plan – takes elements from fixed, percentage and progressive staking to create somewhat of a hybrid staking plan. The Kelly Criterion. 10st 9lbs. It was first repurposed as a formula to identify an optimal betting system in horse racing. We are giving you two options on how to use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. If you bet less than 10%, you’re not taking full advantage of. I should warn an edge like that would require some serious inside info. Golf. For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039561-R-319411-005. Two main concepts in wagering, Kelly criterion and hedging, will be discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. 4:00 min read. evident from looking at the Kelly Criterion graph. This shows that according to the Kelly Criterion formula, you should stake 25% of the amounts you have set for betting. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. Brechin Castle (Ire) B. You just can't bet at that level. Now live in 25 states, this. g. Add the odds quoted by the. ) Of course, this begs the question: Why use the Kelly Criterion at all?The Kelly criterion, developed by John L. O. Satiate should go close in this restricted $5k claimer on the main track. while reducing volatility. The Kelly criterion was used by horse racing gamblers in the late 1950s. 16) of our free Excel betting. 25 visually looked very smart when doing his best work at the finish over an inadequate five furlongs at Naas, backing up his ten-length demolition job on. 25 so an edge of 25% divided by 1. 00. In other words, according to the Kelly Criterion, in this case, football lovers should stake 0. 55)-0. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Moon to shine at Exeter in Monday 18/1 double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 4/1 Fry up some Ree Okka on Monday. Kelly of AT&T Bell Laboratories, the Kelly Criterion is a formula designed to boost betting profits by determining the ideal percentage of capital to. 82pts. What the Kelly Criterion does is help you decide the perfect level of stake by. Get a £5 Free Bet on Multiples - Every Day! Place £20 worth of Multiples or Bet Builders over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £5 bet to use on Multiples. LEXINGTON, Ky. Rugby World Cup Final. Daryl Carter's Tips: Daryl likes two course winners at Wolverhampton at 7/2 and 10/1;. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. Mode 1: You know the true probability of an outcome and the soft bookmaker odds. The Kelly Criterion works by analyzing the probability of each horse winning the race and determining the optimal amount of money to bet on each horse. I don't have a strong betting opinion in the five-runner Voltigeur at 15:00, though I think layers of Gregory at around 5/4 2. In such a case, the Kelly criterion suggests that if one were to go over 20% repeatedly on a low. xh is the amount we will wager on horse h, Oh is the decimal payout odds for horse h, which we assume are fixed, and w is our current wealth. The question arises because it is widely believed that the Kelly criterion is best for betting online, while, in fact, its use is appropriate only if our betting system has been actually proved profitable. 40) / 1. With all the prior odds, the equation will add up to this: ( (4x 0. K. Example of Kelly Criterion in Horse Racing. 48 B = 2-1 = 1. I think he was right. Kelly Criterion. How to Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. They Kelly criterion is a formula used to determine how much of your money to place on a particular gamble. Its discoverer was John Larry Kelly, Jr . Racing Results & Replays. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. The Kelly Criterion is a famous formula developed by its name-sake John Kelly Jr and is used by many a handicapper and blackjack player. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday doubleHorse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage. We investigate the most popular approaches to the problem of sports betting investment based on modern portfolio theory and the Kelly criterion. But on those occasions when you lose, you will lose your stake of $57. forms of gambling, including sports betting. Estimation: 0,25 (25 %) ( (5,00 x 0,25) - 1) / (5,00-1) = 0,0625. Blackbow - 14:00 Naas. She. Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapper's Corner: Kelly CriterionIn horse racing, this is based on the player’s own handicapping of the race. If we did this with a stake of £100, when both those orders matched, we would. 40)-0. B=2-1=1. For standard Kelly betting, set the fractional Kelly betting value to 1. 33pts. Based on this equation and outcome, you should only be wagering 10 percent of your bankroll on the proposed wager. The actual Kelly Standard: A serious Research Of your own Popular Staking Method – current horse racing odds. Keep in mind that this is a high percentage and the ideal amount you should bet is 3% of your bankroll or less. Timeform best bets. 20 by 2, and you get . B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure (i. I was thinking of creating a spreadsheet to help me at the track but why do that if someone already has this. 66% of your bank. 2023 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to 1pt stake (0. K. (You can turn a negative ROI into a positive one — at least in games of skill like horse racing — through greater education and better information. Editor. One of the easiest mistakes to make. Thorp is the real deal, but he's not talking about horse racing. The Kelly Criterion is a strategy that can be used in several. Racing Results & Replays. The horses rated in that sweet spot in this year's race amount to. The course stages racing over distances up to 1850m, with 4 chutes on the back half of the track. 35 * 0. I would like to use Kelly Criterion but I do not manage to use it at more bets at the same time. 5 Tips for Using the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, the bettor would calculate the optimal bet size as follows: f = (0. 6%) but your estimate of the ‘true’ probability of the draw is 30%. Are you open to new opportunity?- 15:00: No bet. The first is attributing probability to a positive outcome of a selected bet and the second is a win-loss calculation. Eat healthy. Venetia Williams. How to use the Kelly Criterion calculator. Blackbow was ultimately only fifth in a two-mile-five-furlong handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival, but he looked set to make a much bigger impact for most of. Featured Horse Racing. Dimitar Berbatov. As much as anything, it is the prospect of Quickthorn getting the lead to himself that is just as attractive as the drop in class that the race represents. Kelly Jr. Get exclusive views of the. Using the Kelly Calculator The Kelly criterion, developed by John L. Highfield Princess enjoyed remarkable success last. Example of the Kelly Criterion: Let’s say you have analyzed a game and determined that the underdogs have a 40% chance of winning, and their odds are +200 (3. 5) – 60)/2) = 16% of your bank. If a fully Kelly stake was 8%, then the half-, quarter- and eighth-Kelly stakes would be 4%, 2% and 1% respectively. Volleyball Tips. Kelly Criterion Formula. 2$ and his odds are $1$ so you. Soon after the paper was published the gambling community somehow came across it and found that it had potential as a perfect betting system for horse racing. Bets must settle before 23:59 on the day they're placed. 6. Therefore, as judged on the last 10 runnings of the race, a horse rated 149-150 is optimal. Royal Ascot - 15:40: Lay Bluestocking. Rugby Union Tips. That, in a nutshell, is how the Kelly Criterion works. Cheltenham NAP - 16:00 - Back Brechin Castle. The Kelly betting criterion ignores uncertainty in the probability of winning the bet and uses an estimated probability. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 9/4 Springwell Bay looks thrown in off 137 at Cheltenham Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Paddy Power Gold Cup can go to a closerFeatured Rugby. Let us say that your horse (Let us call him Lucky Punter) gets 4/1 odds (or 5. The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula that is used to take optimally sized bets and grow your capital at the maximum rate possible. The 20/1 21. Before addressing your. Lose weight. Kelly Jr. For example, consider you are betting on a coin to land on heads at 2. That is the heart of any. Betfair, e-mail [email protected] on Kelly criterion and fractional Kelly strategy for non-mutually exclusive bets, published in Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 19 on 2023-01-17 by Benjamin P. Kelly criterion as part of a horse racing system article any horse racing system must have a money management component built in this is of paramount importance without this component it is still possible to lose huge sums of money. horse racing, basketball, and football. This project is a fork (offshoot) of the standard version (v2. Cricket. Previously he had competed in a couple of good races at York and his trainer Geoff Oldroyd. Enter the probability (%), which represents the likelihood of winning the bet. the optimal strategy for a single horse and gave an incomplete solution to the problem with. The Kelly Criterion is a recognized money management system used extensively in horse and sports betting, and in the stock market. Downloadable (with restrictions)! This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. ”. Betfair, e-mail Copy@betfair. Mode 1: You know the true probability of an outcome and the soft bookmaker odds. In another example, you may have a perceived edge of 55% (0. Just as it is for sports bettors, poker players or horse racing bettors, following a practical money management plan is one of those things. If they leave him alone in front, there. We define the problem setting, the formal investment strategies, and review their common modifications used in practice. The number of bets considered here should also be discussed. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 9/4 Springwell Bay looks thrown in off 137 at Cheltenham Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Paddy Power Gold Cup can go to a closerHorse Racing Tips: One drifter and a chaser to back for 48/1 Monday double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Paul Nicholls' Ditcheat Diary: Daryl Jacob to ride Bravemansgame in Saturday's. Without the right knowledge and strategy on how much to wager on a particular event, you could easily plunge yourself into a pit of losses. 4 (40% chance of failure). There are n horses in the race, and the probability of horse h winning is πh. Then, you divide 0. With hand waving and basic math you can also use it to help guide your investment decisions. Subsequent to being distributed in 1956, the Kelly criterion was gotten rapidly by players who had the option to apply the formula to horse racing. a. Join Betfair and Bet £10 Get £30 in free bets!Football. distributions are fi xed in advance. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. 5pt EW) settled at BSP: +5. The standard kelly betting is 1. Criterion has raced at Ascot-GB, Caulfield-AUS, Randwick-AUS, Flemington-AUS, Moonee Valley. I think he was right. The median rating is 149mean is 149. Kelly Strategy Bet Calculator. the optimal strategy for a single horse and gave an incomplete solution to the problem with. Kelly’s Criterion also assumes that you can start again if your entire bankroll is lost . s = b * (o / f. 55)-0. Enter the odds, which represent the potential payout for winning the bet. Timeform's Tony McFadden highlights a Nap, Next Best and Each Way selection at the Curragh on Sunday. Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage. Simply input your betting bankroll, the odds on offer, your. German Bundesliga. Monthly Breakdown. French Ligue 1. You think the horse has 50% of winning. 5/2. This value should be a number between 0 and 100. , a physicist and information theorist who worked at AT&T’s Bell Laboratories. The Kelly Criterion is a betting strategy created by J L Kelly, a scientific researcher, back in 1956. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. Kelly Criterion And Asset Management. The latter corresponds to a specific allocation of the gambler's capital on the M horses: if we denote by C t the gambler's. Today’s Betting Tips. The number of bets considered here should also be discussed. The most common form of value betting calculator. For any queries relating to Betting. Finally, in x7 we give some numerical examples to illustrate the methods. There are two basic components to the Kelly Criterion. Kelly published his findings in a paper "A new interpretation of the information. This is due to the requirement that the gambler commits to a specific outcome of the team game. ROI = -14. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 66/1 Jazzie to spring a surprise at Fairyhouse;. The first step in using. 00 – 1) f* =0. 70 on the Betfair Sportsbook - should know plenty more today, having caught the eye in good races on. 52x1 – 0. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Criterion is a 12 year old horse that was born in 2011 and raced from 2013 to 2016. The bettingexpert Academy introduces you to advanced betting theory including calculating implied probability, the kelly criterion and predictive modelling. Monks Dream (Ire) Tim Easterby. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;The Kelly Criterion is a money-management formula that calculates the optimal amount you should bet when there’s a difference between the true odds and the given odds. Before addressing your investment strategy, learn about the Kelly criterion and see if it’s a fit for you. He ran his two seasonal best RPRs of 162 and 163 in his first two outings last year, while in 2021, he won the Haldo Gold Cup, won in 2020, and won his Maide Hurdle first time out in 2018. 5 which equals a stake of 16. 80. Julie Johnston ran on well in the closing stages, though, suggesting a return to form may be near, and that race has worked out well with the first and third both winning next time. 10. This value should be in decimal format (e. Betfair column. Kelly criterion staking approach aims to maximize your winning and protect your capital in losing runs. 2) From another angle. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. CURRENT BALANCE: Insert your current betting balance BOOKMAKER ODDS: The odds you want to back YOUR ESTIMATE (%): Your estimated probability of the selection winning FRACTIONAL KELLY BETTING (FKB): Choose between 0. 5. WITH KELLY. Three are three outcomes to the team game: Team1 wins. 2023 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to 1pt stake (0. For sports bettors, the Kelly Criterion sports betting strategy is capable of maximizing potential profit, while minimizing both volatility and threat. 50 ($1250 x 25% = $312. In Chapter 6, we will talk about some methods in misconceptions in estimating placed probability. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: England to finish on high with Argentina win. The Kelly criterion is a useful tool for making informed decisions about how to allocate capital when betting on horse races, particularly when considering a single type of bet (Benter 1994) -most. A race involves M horses, and is described by a normalized vector of winning probabilities p, an inverse-odds vector r and a gambler strategy b. ) Of course, this begs the question: Why use the Kelly Criterion at all?Kelly Criterion Calculator. Horse Racing Tips: Tommie can be our rock in Sunday 9/1 Fontwell multiple ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Rachael Blackmore: Ain't That A Shame can go well in Troytown Handicap Chase; Horse. More. resource for various forms of investing too, as its primary. Featured Horse Racing. 55) on a specific spread or total priced at -110 (american odds). g. He started life as data analyst in the digital marketing field before find his true calling in the world of Football and Horse Racing Betting. Mode 2: You know the sharp bookmaker odds and soft bookmaker odds. The Kelly Criterion helps you calculate the optimal amount you should wager when there is a difference between the true odds and the given odds at the. q = 0. b = the decimal odds – 1. 55) / 1. If we replace them in the formula, here’s what you get. O. In this article, I explain how I think you should properly use the Kelly criterion as applied to long. View the Betslip. But then the prices started. Racing. Satiate to repeat. Correspondence Address: Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. Betfair, e-mail Copy@betfair. The paper is structured as follows. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. 73 feet. The Dewhurst at 14:00 had 33 entries on Monday morning but we are down to 12 now. ple and correct procedure to apply the Kelly strategy for the general case. The Kelly Criterion is a formula to determine the proper size of a bet with known odds and a definite payout. Here’s what the variables in the Kelly Criterion formula look like based on these conditions. Staked: 249pts Returns: 459. ITV Races - Tony Calvin. The Kelly Criterion also works for horse race betting. This is Kellys Equation. 2022 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to. 15:20 Pontefract - Back Classy Boy @ 7/4 2. Cricket. By E. Daily Racing Multiple. while reducing volatility. While this was formulated around table games, it is a concept that can be. All the more recently, the strategy has seen a renaissance, in response to claims that unbelievable investors Warren Buffett and. Here are the steps that you have to follow in order to use our Kelly Criterion Calculator: Add your current betting balance in the cell called “Current Betting Balance”. Kelly criterion as part of a horse racing system article any horse racing system must have a money management component built in this is of paramount importance without this component it is still possible to lose huge sums of money no matter how much research a punter does. For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039561-R-319411-005. So if the chance of winning on a single bet is 80%, the bettor should wager 60% of one’s bankroll. Kelly criterion can generate an optimal bidding fraction (MacLean et al. Don said picking a trifecta winning bet was a test of skill rather than a game of chance. He was trained by David Hayes and Tom Dabernig and raced for Sir Owen G. French Horse Racing Tips from the betting experts at betting. Learn how much you need to stake with the help of our easy-to-use Kelly Criterion bet calculator!Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday doubleYard seeking a fourth win in this since 2014. Part 1 of this series provides an introduction to the Kelly criterion along with a worked example. In his book Commonsense Betting, which is arguably the finest book written on the betting and the mathematics of horse-racing, US author Dick Mitchell wrote about various staking plans. k. Now, if we return to the figures we already provided, the equation will look like this: ( (2 x 0. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. Paul V. Nick Mordin devoted a chapter to the Kelly Criterion in his book Winning Without Thinking, which also had the original paper in the appendix,. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a. 0% of similar occasions, you would expect to gain $99. The first of these is the probability of a positive outcome, or a winning trade. Betfair International Plc is licensed and regulated by the . Following the Kelly criterion, the process of betting is closely connected to information theory (K elly Jr, 1956). 2. Therefore the Kelly Criterion would recommend you bet 4%. Calculate Bet The formula is as follows: WINNING RATE - LOSING RATE / AVG. In the seminal paper [5], Kelly considered repeated betting on horse races. 82pts. In particular, it maximizes the expected growth rate and the. Cricket. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;More Betfair. 66. Kelly says that his edge is $0. The ultimate value betting calculator. e. A more general problem was considered in. Correspondence Address: Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: South Africa and New Zealand to serve up classic final. Venera. Horse racing - In-running; ↳ Bet Angel Automation - Horse racing - Pre off; ↳ Bet Angel Automation - General;Horse Racing Tips: Blackmore to get us rolling at Punchestown with Thursday multiple ;. For any queries relating to. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Gordon set for winners in Fontwell Saturday 8/1 double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 22/1 Bird. Many pro-bettors around the world recommend the use of the Kelly Criterion or a modified version of it. 1. Defining what race reading is. Shaquille 4/5 1. In such a case, the Kelly criterion suggests that if one were to go over 20% repeatedly on a low. After getting published in 1956, the gambling community got wind of it and realized its prospects in the horse racing betting system. Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA. It doesn’t take asymmetric utility into account. John Kelly developed his formula whilst working at AT&T’s Bell Laboratory when attempting to solve their long-distance signal noise issues. Here’s. Place £20 worth of multiples over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £5 to use on multiples. This post is Part 2 of a series on the Kelly criterion and its application to sports betting. Read the article Kelly criterion and fractional Kelly strategy for non-mutually exclusive bets on R Discovery, your go-to avenue for effective literature search. Part of Kelly's insight was to have the gambler maximize the expectation of the logarithm of his capital, rather than the expected profit from each bet. The online Kelly criterion calculator determines a recommended stake based on the prevailing odds and your estimated probability that the selection will win. Venera. 05 2/1 coming off second best to Pied Piper 4. This is of paramount importance. Don said picking a trifecta winning bet was a test of skill rather than a game of chance. Charlie Deutsch. And at Caesars, the race took the checkers from NASCAR, which has leaned hard into sports betting as a fan-engagement vehicle. Kelly Criterion General Discussion : Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > General Discussion: Kelly Criterion. 00) and should not include any additional symbols such. This type of situation is. With hand waving and basic math you can also use it to help guide. The Kelly Criterion is comprised of two basic components. By three laps. Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. Cheltenham Festival: Expert Betting Advice & Predictions for the 2023 Cheltenham: Cheltenham Races Tips Cheltenham Betting Offers Horse Racing Expert Tips & Advice. The Kelly criterion is a money-management formula of passionate interest (and controversy) to card players, sports bettors, investors, hedge fund managers, and economists. 20 or 20% of their bankroll. The first of these is the probability of a positive outcome, or a winning trade. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. Kevin Blake's horse racing tips for Saturday come at Newmarket with a 33/1 each-way bet on The Very Man in the feature Cesarewitch Stakes and one in the 15:15 on the same cardNewbury - 14:25 - Back Rainbow Dreamer each-way @ 40/1 41. Jon has been sharing his professional expertise since 2009 and specialises in using objective data analysis and subjective experience of betting built up over more than a decade of professional betting. 80. Kelly of AT&T Bell Laboratories, the Kelly Criterion is a formula designed to boost betting profits by determining the ideal percentage of capital to be staked on each wagering event. scientific gambling method ), is an effective strategy in every sense of the word.